The Nobel Peace Prize Medal (photo - EPA)

Norwegian officials in charge of awarding the Nobel Peace Prize are investigating a possible data leak regarding this year's winner, writes Bloomberg.

The reason for suspicions of leakage was a sharp increase in online betting on the candidate Maria Corina Machado shortly before the Nobel Committee's decision was announced.

Disable ads
Disable ads

Local newspapers were the first to notice this Aftenposten and Finansavisen.

The five-member committee, which includes a human rights activist, a foreign policy expert, and three former ministers (all from Norway), made its final decision on Monday. Machado herself received a phone call from the committee just minutes before her victory was announced on Friday.

In the betting market, Machado was considered a clear outsider in the fight for the Peace Prize, but she became the main leader.

On the platform for betting on the outcome of real events Polymarket the probability of Machado's victory rose from 3.75% to 72.8% just two hours before the announcement. Before that, she was losing to Yulia Navalnaya and the US President To Donald Trump, which was a favorite of many bookmakers.

Disable ads
Ratings of Maria Corina Machado, Donald Trump, Yulia Navalnaya and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms on the Polymarket platform (source: Finansavisen)

One of the traders under the nickname dirtycup bet about $70,000 on the Venezuelan politician's victory just a few hours before the results were announced, and later made almost $30,000 in profit.

The three Polymarket accounts, which mostly bet on Machado, made a total profit of about $90,000.

The director of the Nobel Institute, Christian Berg Harpviken, said that the committee takes such leaks "very seriously." He added that he did not remember any similar incidents with the Nobel Peace Prize, although "some leaks" occurred about 15 years ago.

Earlier this week, Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange Inc. the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. As a result of the transaction, the company's value was estimated at about $8 billion.

  • Polymarket is an American online platform that allows users to place anonymous cryptocurrency bets on the probability of almost anything (sports outcomes, geopolitical events, future prices of financial assets, etc.) Previously, Polymarket was criticized for offering markets in ethically controversial areas, such as the date of death pope Francis.
  • In November 2024, the French gambling regulator started an audit of Polymarket's activities after a surge in her popularity during the US presidential election.