Sale of Sense Bank and Ukrgazbank. How much they can be bought for and how to increase the attractiveness of the deal

State starts or launches the sale of two state-owned banks – Sens Bank and Ukrgazbank. On October 1, the Cabinet of Ministers launched preparations for privatization. The goal is to reduce the state's presence in the banking sector and replenish the budget.

The sale is part of a large-scale process stipulated in the memorandum with the IMF to reduce the state's share in the banking sector. Currently, it exceeds 50%, while the optimal level is considered to be 25–30%.

Currently, there are seven state-owned banks in Ukraine: PrivatBank, Oschadbank, Ukreximbank, Ukrgazbank, Sens Bank, PIN Bank and Motor Bank.

The sale will take place in several stages: first, the government will choose a privatization advisor who will prepare the share packages for sale. Then, a tender will be announced for potential investors, and the final step will be the signing of contracts. The size of the shares to be sold is not yet disclosed.

Who exactly could be the buyer, why sell banks during a war, and whether it will be possible to get the planned money for them – editor Anastasia Ishchenko investigated.

Who can buy banks?

Potential buyers of Sens Bank and Ukrgazbank could include international financial institutions, large banking groups, or local players. The deal format could vary: from a complete sale to a strategic investor to attracting minority shareholders or even a "people's IPO" (initial public offering) – selling shares to small investors through the stock exchange.

The most likely scenario for relatively small banks, such as Sens or Ukrgazbank, is the sale of 100% of their shares to a strategic investor – a bank that already operates in Ukraine or plans to enter the market. This is according to Hlib Vishlinsky, Executive Director of the Center for Economic Strategy.

The specific group of investors will depend on market conditions, the timing of the deal, and the strategic importance of the banks, the EBRD press service said in response to a request LIGA.net.The financial institution did not rule out the possibility that they themselves could become a minority shareholder in one of the banks.

"The buyers could be local investors, strategic international investors, or even international financial institutions, such as the EBRD, as minority shareholders," the EBRD said.

Local contenders among financial groups are also possible. For example, Serhiy Tigipko's group, which has been active in banking M&A during wartime – in particular, it acquired the Ukrainian branch of Idea Bank. This assumption is made by Serhiy Velikdanov, owner of the non-bank financial group "VSC Group".

Previously, the group also acquired a debt collection company from Swedbank and ViES Bank (a subsidiary of the Polish Getin Holding). Now the group has a ready-made banking infrastructure, integration experience and the resources to scale, he says.

"TAScombank is actively increasing its market share, so acquiring one of the state-owned banks seems like a logical step to consolidate assets within its group," says Serhiy Velikdanov.

The TAS Group did not respond to a request regarding whether they plan to buy state-owned banks.

How much can they sell them for

Ukrgazbank and Sens Bank are considered systemically important banks in Ukraine and are among the ten largest, accounting for 9% of all assets. As of September 1, 2025, Ukrgazbank's assets amounted to 178.8 billion UAH, and its capital to 19.2 billion UAH.

As for Sense Bank, its assets amount to 131.7 billion UAH, and its capital is 13.1 billion UAH.

Before the full-scale invasion, the value of banks was within the range of one capital, but now, due to the risks of war, it has fallen. For example, in April 2025, Serhiy Tihipko bought Idea Bank for $36.5 million (about 0.7 of the capital).

If we calculate using this analogy, the value of Ukrgazbank would be around 13.4 billion UAH, and Sense Bank – 9.17 billion UAH. However, many factors will affect the value, and the actual price will only be determined during the auction process.

However, 0.7 of the capital is a very optimistic forecast. This is the opinion of Andriy Shevchyshyn, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts. "The sale amount could reach half of the capital, or it could fall even lower. We need to understand what share of the bank will be sold and what share will remain with the state," says Shevchyshyn. In his opinion, if less than a controlling stake is sold, the value will be even lower.

Taras Kozak, president of the investment group "Univer," is also confident that the price will be below the capital. "We are at war, and there's no queue of buyers; it's more of an invitation – buy now and you'll earn something someday," he reflects.

The sale will bring billions of hryvnias needed for the war, but it will have to be sold cheaper than in peacetime, Kozak is sure. "The likely price is around the capital (0.8–0.9)," the investment banker believes.

Even banks from EU countries are being sold for half their capital, and expecting a Ukrainian bank in a country at war to be sold for more is unrealistic. This is according to Serhiy Budkin, founder of the investment company FinPoint.

"Unless the state offers some additional conditions – for example, permission to withdraw dividends abroad. This would significantly increase the attractiveness of the deal," says Budkin. The investment banker is familiar with bank sales; his company helped sell Aval Bank for $1 billion in the early 2000s, and in 2024, he was a consultant in the sale of IdeaBank.

How it benefits the state to sell banks

To improve the attractiveness of banks to buyers, the state should improve corporate governance, believes Taras Kozak. In his opinion, state-owned banks, except PrivatBank, have a problem with this. And without quality corporate governance, it will be difficult to sell state-owned financial institutions at a good price.

Another important aspect that can affect the attractiveness of a financial institution to an investor is the potential influence of the state on the bank after privatization, notes Serhiy Budkin. He refers to a large share of state-owned companies in the bank's portfolio. As a rule, state-owned companies are large players, and their presence carries the risk of political influence. "The larger this portfolio, the potentially lower the bank's value will be," he is convinced.

The state should also provide buyers with clear guarantees regarding the past, advises Budkin. "The investor must understand that all tax liabilities identified on the date of sale are final. The new owner should not be responsible for the bank's old problems," he emphasizes.

In addition, the state must provide legal guarantees. If any claims regarding ownership rights arise after the sale, or if any legal risks are discovered, the state must assume them. The investor must be confident that they are buying a clean asset, without any "tails" from past history.

We need to ensure clear tax conditions. Budkin says that if the state wants to maintain, for example, a 50% corporate income tax, it has the right to do so. But then it must take this into account in the price formula.

"For example, if the tax is 25%, it could be a sale for one capital. If the tax is 50%, then for 0.8 capital. In other words, the price should reflect the tax burden," explains the investment banker.

But the most important thing is the predictability of the rules, Budkin concludes. Investors are willing to pay when they understand what they are getting into. When there are clear conditions, a stable regulatory position, and there is no risk that something will change drastically after the deal.

Is it advisable to sell banks during a war

Selling state-owned banks during wartime is a complex move. On the one hand, attracting private investors under such conditions is difficult, but on the other hand, Ukraine's banking sector has demonstrated high resilience, which is already attracting the attention of international capital.

Despite the war, the sale of Sens Bank and Ukrgazbank is a logical step. This is according to Serhiy Velikdanov, owner of the VSK Group financial group. After all, all losses of state-owned banks are ultimately covered from the budget.

According to CASE Ukraine, from 2009 to 2021, taxpayers spent 370 billion hryvnias, or more than $21 billion at the historical exchange rate. Of this amount, $7.9 billion was spent to enable nationalized banks to resume operations as solvent institutions. $7.7 billion was direct support or recapitalization of state-owned banks.

Regarding the privatization of Sens Bank, an important aspect is the arbitration with the former owners. Delaying the sale could leave the state without one of its arguments in court, notes Serhiy Budkin.

If the bank is sold through an open tender and the market price is, say, $200 million, this will be factual market confirmation of its value. And then the former shareholders will not be able to justify their lawsuit, in which they are trying to recover $1 billion from Ukraine.

"But if the state delays the sale, the arbitration may not take this argument into account. Therefore, the privatization of Sens is not only a matter of price, but also of Ukraine's legal position in a potential arbitration," Budkin explains.