The dollar at 45 UAH, the euro at 50+. What will the exchange rate be in 2026

In 2025, there was a paradoxical situation on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market. The dollar-to-hryvnia exchange rate barely moved, while the euro rose sharply. At the beginning of the year, official The dollar exchange rate was UAH 42.09, and at the end of December, it was UAH 42.06, despite noticeable fluctuations throughout the year. At the same time, the euro increased from UAH 43.68 to UAH 49.42 during the same period, adding almost six hryvnias or 13%.Such multidirectional dynamics have only exacerbated the question of whether the dollar will maintain its usual stability in 2026, or whether it will approach the 45 UAH mark, and how the euro, which increasingly lives by the laws of global markets, will behave. LIGA.net have compiled the forecasts of five bankers regarding possible exchange rate scenarios and risks that could alter the usual picture of the foreign exchange market.Serhii Liashenko – Head of Investment Projects and Programs at Oschadbank According to our baseline scenario, the dollar exchange rate will be in the range of UAH 42.2-43.4/dollar, and the euro will be in the range of UAH 48.6-55.6/euro.In our opinion, the euro will be a more volatile currency in 2026, as the dollar is showing weakness in the global market and we expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to increase, while the USD/UAH will be relatively stable.Read alsoOschadbank has chosen a new chairman of the board: Yuriy Katsion will take the position.I think that customer interest in the euro will grow, particularly due to its faster appreciation compared to the dollar. The determining factor for the euro-to-hryvnia exchange rate is the euro/dollar dynamic, as the price of this currency in Ukraine is determined through a cross-rate.That is, to determine the euro/hryvnia exchange rate, the euro/dollar and dollar/hryvnia exchange rates are multiplied, which means that the influence of internal factors is insignificant.Yuriy Krokhmal – Sales Director, Bank Avangard We assume that the NBU will not change its monetary policy unless force majeure events occur. Therefore, we expect a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia by about 10%. By the end of 2026, the dollar could be worth 44–44.5 UAH/dollar, and the euro – 53–55 UAH/euro, due to its strengthening in global markets.The following will have the greatest impact on the exchange rate:• Availability of sufficient and predictable external financing from international partners (EU, USA) to cover the budget deficit and balance the balance of payments.• The dynamics of inflation and, accordingly, the reaction of the NBU, if it is again necessary to contain inflationary risks.• Domestic economic activity, in particular the situation in Ukraine's main export markets (metals, grain, IT services) and the cost of imported energy carriers.Read alsoThe NBU is still keeping the dollar as the main currency for exchange rate formation, but is studying the transition to the euro.The euro will not become the main benchmark in 2026, as most of Ukraine's foreign economic transactions will continue to be denominated in US dollars. The dollar remains the main currency of the interbank market, so it is unlikely to lose this status in 2026.The most underestimated risk for the exchange rate is a sudden devaluation due to force majeure. Businesses and the population are accustomed to relative stability; however, problems with external financing, serious external shocks, or a deterioration of the security situation could force the NBU to revise its monetary policy and lead to sharp exchange rate fluctuations.Oleg Serdiuk – Director of the Capital Markets Department at UkreximbankWe assume that the foreign exchange market will continue to operate as usual, and that the volume of international aid will be sufficient to maintain macro-stability. Under these conditions, the hryvnia may moderately weaken to UAH 44-45/dollar by the end of 2026. The euro exchange rate, at the same time, will largely depend on the dynamics of the euro/dollar pair and may amount to UAH 52-54/euro.In our opinion, the EUR/UAH pair will be more volatile in 2026. This is due to its strong dependence on the dynamics of the EUR/USD, which fluctuated in a wide range in 2025 – from 1.01 to 1.19. On the eve of 2026, high uncertainty persists in global markets, which may further intensify these fluctuations.Although the role of internal factors, particularly logistics costs for banks, has increased in the cash market amid the war, the euro exchange rate remains closely tied to international euro/dollar quotes. We expect this dependence to continue throughout 2026.Hanna Zolotko – Member of the Management Board, Director of the Treasury Operations Department at Unex BankCustomer demand is gradually shifting towards the euro. Due to closer economic ties with the EU, more and more business contracts are being concluded in euros, so companies are increasingly settling with partners in euros. This means an increase in demand for the euro from businesses and a relative decrease in the need for the dollar.The population is also more actively buying euros. In the second half of 2025, the volume of euro purchases in the cash market grew faster than that of the dollar. An additional factor is remittances from migrant workers in Europe, which are mainly received in euros.The NBU's policy also plays a separate role. The regulator does not rule out a gradual departure from the rigid "dollar" anchor and a greater orientation towards the euro. If such an approach is implemented, the euro/hryvnia exchange rate may become more stable, which will further increase interest in the euro. At the same time, the dollar will remain an important currency, although its relative role will gradually decrease.Read alsoFinancial hygiene: how to take control of your money in one hour and stop wasting itThe biggest risk for clients is a sharp jump in exchange rates above baseline forecasts. In the event of an escalation of the war or a reduction in external aid, the dollar and euro exchange rates could quickly rise. It is sharp exchange rate fluctuations that create the greatest risks for savings and credit obligations. In contrast, a scenario of gradual devaluation is much less painful and relatively safe.Serhiy Mamedov – Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks, Chairman of the Board of Globus BankIn 2026, the dollar may fluctuate within the range of 43–45 UAH/dollar, and the euro – 50–52 UAH/euro. This means an increase in the official dollar exchange rate by 2–7% compared to 2025. Experts expect that exchange rate changes will be smooth and controlled, without shocks and sharp excitement in the cash market.At the same time, in 2025, the average annual exchange rate in the state budget was set at UAH 45/dollar, while the actual official rate was on average 7–8% lower. This led to a significant gap between budget calculations and reality.On the one hand, the NBU's currency strategy seemed balanced: the regulator combined monetary instruments with maintaining a "managed flexibility" regime. On the other hand, due to the exchange rate difference, the government had to revise the state budget. In 2026, under favorable conditions, such an imbalance will be avoided.

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