Leading Russian banks have started preparing for the debt crisis – Ukraine's intelligence

Leading Russian banks, in particular Sberbank and VTB, have begun preparing for a wave of non-payments in late 2025 and early 2026. About said The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to intelligence, the volume of unpaid loans in Russia is growing rapidly due to the high discount rate and deteriorating financial condition of borrowers.

Overdue consumer loan debt in Russia has already exceeded 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion), the highest level in six years.

Russia's VTB Bank has warned that the share of non-performing loans could rise from the current 5% to 7% in 2026. Sberbank CEO German Gref also acknowledged that 2026 will be "difficult" due to the increasing pressure of restructurings.

According to intelligence, despite the Kremlin's official statements about stability, tensions are growing in the Russian banking sector.

In particular, investors are withdrawing money from short-term assets, and the volume of investments in bond funds has exceeded money funds for the first time, with more than $2.5 billion coming in since the beginning of the year.

Another signal was the rise in financial fraud. VTB has recorded a surge in schemes aimed at borrowers who can no longer service their debts.

Banks are trying to respond to the situation, in particular, by intensifying internal consultations and increasing the volume of restructurings. If the problems worsen, the CBR may introduce new support mechanisms, but under non-transparent criteria.

• The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine expects that the Russian economy will start to collapse by the end of 2025 under pressure from sanctions and military spending.
• on July 17, Bloomberg reported that at least three systemic banks in Russia may additional capitalization from the state may be required over the next year in case of growth of bad debts.