What will 2026 be like: Inflation, exchange rates, and assistance from partners

The year 2026 does not promise Ukraine a rapid economic breakthrough, but it also does not look like a year of possible shock. Inflation is gradually slowing down, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain relatively stable, and international aid will continue to cover critical budget gaps.However, the macro indicators only look stable at first glance. Behind them are war, energy risks, a budget deficit, and a labor market that cannot return to its pre-war balance. For the state, this means a constant search for resources; for businesses, adaptation; and for people, the need to count their money more carefully than before.What will happen to Ukraine's economy and, ultimately, to the well-being of every Ukrainian in 2026? Forecasts from the NBU, ICU, the Center for Economic Strategy, and Dragon Capital.What will happen to inflation?Consumer inflation in Ukraine decreased to 9.3% year-on-year in November, the National Bank reported in its December report on financial stability."The National Bank forecasts inflation to slow to 9.2% by the end of the year, and to 6.6% by the end of 2026," the institution suggests.However, the gradual decline in inflation does not indicate a decrease in the cost of goods, but rather a slowdown in price increases. This means that money will lose its purchasing power less rapidly.After double-digit price increases in 2024, the market may transition to more moderate price dynamics in 2026."Annual inflation will decrease monthly at least until May. In the second half of the year, it will start accelerating again, mainly due to a low base, and by the end of 2026, it will be 6-7%," predicts the ICU investment group.However, inflationary pressure will decrease due to slower growth in household incomes, more cautious consumer behavior, and a high supply of key food products on the domestic market.Read also"Winter Support" in 2025: What's Changed and Where Can You Spend 1000 UAH Now?What will the economic growth beAccording to with a forecast According to the NBU, economic recovery will remain subdued in 2026, at 2%. The main reasons are security risks and electricity shortages.For 2026, the minimum growth forecast is 1%, the maximum is 5% in peacetime, and 2.6% in wartime. These are the forecasts of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES)."Median expectations are slightly better for 2025: GDP in 2026 will grow to 2.4%, inflation will slow down, and devaluation will be insignificant," – They say CES analysts.Real GDP growth in the first half of 2025 established only 1.1%, and in 2024, real GDP increased by 2.9%.Economic growth will slow down in 2026 due to damage to energy and transport infrastructure. "Electricity shortages and difficulties with exporting goods by sea will cause temporary downtime for large-scale production facilities," say analysts at the ICU investment group.What will happen to the aid from partnersIf the war continues, a budget deficit of over 20% of GDP will remain a huge problem in 2026. Analysts at the Center for Economic Strategy estimate Ukraine's need for external financing at about $45 billion for 2026. Of this, about $39 billion will be covered by international partners.At the same time, only about $24 billion has been confirmed so far, according to Dragon Capital. Approximately $20 billion remains an open question, and there is almost no confirmed funding for 2027.A shortage of resources could pose a risk to new IMF programs, but the likelihood of a negative scenario is considered low.On December 19, Ukraine already received guarantees of continued financing of budgetary needs from international partners – an interest-free loan for 2026-2027 for a total amount of 90 billion euros. The EU allocates these funds instead of a reparation loan.Read alsoUkraine may not receive €140 billion from Russian funds. The EU is preparing a Plan B: what's the problem?What will happen to the dollar and euro exchange ratesIn the state budget for 2026, the dollar exchange rate is set at UAH 45.7, and the euro at UAH 49.4. Most macroeconomic forecasts show moderate growth of key world economies without sharp jumps, which creates a restrained but unstable environment for currency markets.The exchange rate will be most influenced by the availability of sufficient and predictable external financing from international partners (EU, USA), which covers the budget deficit and balances the payment balance. This was stated by Yuriy Krokhmal, Sales Director of Bank Avangard.In addition, the dynamics of inflation and the National Bank's reaction to it will have an impact, he notes. Other important factors are domestic economic activity, the cost of imported energy, and the situation in Ukraine's main export markets.According to the baseline scenario, the dollar exchange rate will be in the range of UAH 42.2-43.4/dollar, and the euro will be in the range of UAH 48.6-55.6/euro. This was stated by Serhiy Lyashenko, head of investment projects and programs at Oschadbank."The euro will be a more volatile currency in 2026, as the dollar is showing weakness in the global market and we expect the euro/dollar exchange rate to rise, while the dollar/hryvnia will be relatively stable," Lyashenko believes.Which currency is better to buyIn 2026, currency decisions will remain a matter not of quick earnings, but of preserving the value of savings.The dollar will be influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, particularly potential rate cuts and changes in the Fed's leadership. Therefore, a gradual weakening of the dollar is possible, especially against the backdrop of the US labor market situation and global debt risks."The dollar may lose some of its strength in the short term, but in the strategic horizon, it remains a key reserve currency," notes KИТ Group, an international fintech company.The euro, at the same time, is showing a tendency to strengthen, in particular due to the more predictable policy of the European Central Bank and relatively stable economic expectations in the eurozone. However, this currency remains sensitive to factors moving in different directions.In the overall strategy, analysts advise against betting on a single currency. War, geopolitical risks, the development of AI, and possible "black swan" events make diversification a key principle."The optimal solution is to combine the dollar, the euro, and partially protective assets, including gold," explains KИТ Group.Read alsoWhat will the dollar exchange rate be in 2026: forecast and key factorsWhat will happen to salaries and jobsStarting January 1, 2026, the minimum wage in Ukraine will increase to 8,647 hryvnias per month. In 2025, the minimum wage was 8,000 hryvnias.Real incomes (after adjusting for inflation) are projected to increase by 4-5% in 2026, according to the NBU.If the growth rate slowed to 6% in 2025, then in 2026 this trend will be fixed. This was stated by Olga Chernikova, Head of Talent Acquisition at Jooble (an international job search platform).The average salary is expected to grow to UAH 30,000 per month in 2026. In September 2025, it will be was UAH 26,623The labor shortage in 2026 will change, but it will not end. Chernikova adds that specialists in three main areas will be most in demand."Blue-collar workers" and engineers. Mobilization risks and the lack of exemptions have created a critical shortage of technical specialists and middle managers. Builders, energy workers, and logistics personnel are the ones who will physically maintain the infrastructure and recovery, which is already being fueled by international grants.Medical professionals and psychologists, in particular. This is a long-term trend – the demand for rehabilitation and psychological assistance will continue to grow, making these professions consistently in demand.IT sector employees. Despite the instability in the global tech sector, the highest demand in Ukrainian IT in 2026 will remain for AI/ML and Data Science specialists, as well as Fullstack developers who can maintain complex cloud infrastructure. Sales and marketing professionals will also be in demand: against the backdrop of a decrease in orders for service companies, Ukrainian product IT companies continue their active expansion into Western markets.What will be the discount rate that affects depositsAt the end of December, the National Bank of Ukraine preserved The key policy rate is set at 15.5%. This is being done to reduce inflation to the planned target of 5%.Analysts at ICU believe that the key policy rate could be lowered as early as the first quarter of 2026. The key risk that has been holding the NBU back from moving to a monetary policy easing cycle has now been almost eliminated. Namely, the uncertainty regarding the receipt of financial assistance.In late December 2025, the EU decided to allocate a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, which will be financed through joint borrowing by the European Union."By the next review of the key policy rate at the end of January, the NBU will have a complete picture of the prospects for international aid for the 2026-27 period," ICU analysts say. According to their forecast, the key policy rate will be at 13.5% in 2026."Yields on government bonds and rates on retail deposits will react to the reduction in the key policy rate, but the size of their reduction will be significantly smaller than the reduction in the key policy rate," ICU analysts say.

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