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Russia's consolidated budget will have a deficit of 5.1% of GDP in 2025-2027. About writes The Moscow Times, citing the forecast of analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

"When reserves and oil revenues were plentiful, Russia had the illusion that any problem could be flooded with money. But now there is no more money in that quantity, and it is time to choose priorities," said Alexandra Prokopenko, a research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

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According to the forecast, in 2025, the gap in the Russian budget system will amount to 2.4% of GDP, the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic, when the deficit reached 4.6% of GDP. In monetary terms, it will amount to 5.3 trillion rubles ($64 billion).

In 2026, the consolidated budget deficit of the Russian Federation may decrease to 1.6% of GDP ($47 billion), and in 2027 – to 1.1% of GDP ($35 billion).

In total, the shortfall in the Russian budget system will amount to about 12.1 trillion rubles ($150 billion) in three years.

In the first half of 2025 alone, the Russian federal budget deficit reached 3.9 trillion rubles ($47 billion), and by the end of July it had grown to almost 5 trillion ($60 billion).

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Even those Russian regions that usually start the year with a surplus ended up with a deficit: minus 400 billion rubles ($4.82 billion) in the first half of 2025. The Social Fund and the MHIF also ended the half-year with a hole of 236.9 billion rubles ($2.86 billion).

Analysts cite the fall in global oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble as the main reasons for this, which reduced foreign exchange earnings.

In the first 8 months of 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by 20%, and in August the collapse was already 35% year-on-year.

Analysts also note problems at the regional level: every third region of the Russian Federation reported a drop in tax revenues, and every second reported a decline in industry and construction.