New EU sanctions may take away one in five rubles of oil and gas revenues from Russia – forecast

New sanctions imposed by the European Union, including a "flexible" price ceiling for Russian oil, could seriously hit the Russian budget. This is evidenced by the forecast of the Kazakh brokerage company Freedom Finance Global, writes The Moscow Times.

According to the forecast, Russia will lose up to 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion) annually, which is almost 20% of all planned oil and gas revenues.

The new "flexible" price limit stipulates that the price of Russian oil for export will be 15% lower than the market average. This will significantly reduce revenues from oil and gas taxes, analysts say.

In 2025, the Russian Ministry of Finance planned to collect 8.9 trillion rubles ($110 billion) in oil and gas revenues.

"Risks are exacerbated by the fact that the country remains heavily dependent on commodity revenues, and most of the oil is exported to countries where the ceiling can be applied due to restrictions on access to insurance, logistics, and financial settlements," Freedom Finance adds.

Earlier, from the end of 2022, the limit on the price of Russian oil was $60 per barrel. The new limit was approved by the European Commission, reduced to $47.6.

In June, Russian Urals oil was sold at an average price of $59.8, but after the new sanctions, it could drop to $45.

• On July 19, the European Union published in the Official Journal the lists of individuals and legal entities that have been to the 18th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. Among them 105 vessels of the "shadow fleet".