AI will jeopardize 200,000 jobs in European banks by 2030 – forecast

By 2030, European banking institutions may cut about 10% of their workforce – around 212,000 people – due to the introduction of artificial intelligence and digitalisation. This follows an analysis by the American investment bank Morgan Stanley, reported by the Financial Times.

Morgan Stanley’s forecast comes as banks seek to realise the cost savings promised by artificial intelligence while shifting more of their operations online.

According to the analysis of 35 banks, layoffs are most likely to occur in "central services" departments, which include back- and middle-office functions, as well as roles in risk management and compliance.

"Many banks are citing efficiency gains of up to 30% from AI and further digitalisation," Morgan Stanley noted.

European banks are under intense pressure from investors to find new ways to cut costs and improve returns on equity, which have consistently lagged behind those of their US competitors.

Morgan Stanley analysts said AI offers banks an opportunity to improve their cost-to-income ratios — a key efficiency metric monitored by investors — as previous rounds of cost-cutting have largely run out of steam.

Banks have already begun to describe AI as a catalyst for restructuring their operations.

In November, Dutch lender ABN Amro announced plans to cut about a fifth of its workforce by 2028. Meanwhile, Société Générale’s chief executive, Slawomir Krupa, warned in March that "nothing is sacred" in his campaign to reduce the French bank’s persistently high cost base.

The forecast highlights how further digitalisation and the adoption of AI could significantly reshape Europe’s banking landscape in the coming years, particularly among retail-focused lenders and in countries such as France and Germany, where cost-to-income ratios remain high.

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