Sberbank CEO: Problems in the Russian economy will not be solved quickly, 2026 will be a difficult year
Gernan Gref, head of Russia's Sberbank, admitted that the problems in the Russian economy, caused by rising military spending, inflation, and the Central Bank's key rate hike, cannot be solved quickly. This is reported by The Moscow Times.
According to him, the following year, 2026, also "promises to be not the easiest" for the Russian economy, and the situation will depend on geopolitics, economic growth, and the Central Bank's policy.
Gref added that it is already clear that the first half of 2026 will be difficult.
He also reported that Sberbank's credit portfolio quality is deteriorating – the number of applications for debt restructuring is increasing, and both individuals and businesses are experiencing payment problems.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Russian banks are already talking about the risk of a full-blown banking crisis within 12 months.
The reason is massive loan defaults. According to sources cited by the agency, we are talking about trillions of rubles, although official data from the Central Bank of Russia does not yet show this.
In practice, many borrowers simply postpone payments, so the loans do not yet fall into the category of overdue, although they are no longer serviced according to schedule.
Analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Federation (CMACF), which is close to the country's government, say that companies that generate 17% of all revenue in the economy are in the "risk zone."
In Russia, the coal industry, the fishing industry, textile production, auto trade, oil refining, construction, water transport, and the postal service are experiencing the greatest financial difficulties.
- In June, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov publicly announced that the aggressor state was on the verge of sliding into recession, although the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, characterized the situation only as a cooling of the economy. The following day, Putin instructed that under no circumstances should "stagnation, and even more so recession," be allowed.
- The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service expects the Russian economy to collapse by the end of 2025 under the pressure of sanctions and military spending.
- On June 30, Putin ordered the concealment of data on the economy and foreign trade.
