NBU holds rate at 15.5% for third time in a row

On Thursday, July 24, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced its decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 15.5%.

This marks the third consecutive meeting at which the rate has remained steady.

"Given the deviation from the inflation trend observed in June, as well as the continued anchoring of inflation expectations, the NBU sees no grounds for raising the key policy rate further. At the same time, considering the slower-than-expected disinflation and the balance of risks to price dynamics, the central bank also sees no room for easing monetary policy," explained NBU Governor Andriі Pyshnyі.

The central bank's primary objective is to maintain inflation expectations under control and support a continued decline in price pressures. Although inflation began to decelerate after peaking in May, it still stood at 14.3% in June—well above the 5% target.

The NBU noted that inflation trends in the coming months will largely depend on weather conditions and their effect on agricultural output and food prices.

"Unfavorable weather has delayed the harvest and reduced crop prospects," the NBU said in a statement.

Preliminary estimates suggest that headline inflation may edge up slightly in July, while core inflation will continue its downward trend. Inflation is expected to enter a sustained disinflationary path in the months ahead.

"Taking into account greater war-related losses, the pass-through of higher business costs to consumer prices, worsening crop forecasts, and the recent depreciation of the hryvnia against the euro, the NBU has revised its inflation forecast downward," the central bank said.

According to the updated projections, inflation is expected to slow to 9.7% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reach the 5% target in 2027.

The forecast also assumes that the key policy rate will remain at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025.

• The key policy rate is a benchmark interest rate that influences the cost of borrowing and the returns on deposits across the economy. Following the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, the NBU sharply raised the rate from 10% to 25% to stabilize the economy. It remained at that level until July 2023, when sustained disinflation allowed the central bank to begin a gradual easing cycle, lowering the rate to 15% by December 2023.
• In March 2024, the NBU resumed its rate cuts, but reversed course in December due to renewed inflationary pressures. Since March 2025, the key policy rate has held steady at 15.5%.