EBRD downgrades Ukraine's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.3%: reasons
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2025 from 3.5% to 3.3%. This is stated in a new EBRD economic report.

The reasons for the deterioration in the forecast were risks associated with global trade disputes, which added to the already high uncertainty due to Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

However, the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth for 2026 remained unchanged – 5%, provided that hostilities cease and post-war recovery begins.

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Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2024 slowed from over 5% in the first half of the year to around 2% in the second half, resulting in an overall decline to 2.9%.

Among the reasons, the EBRD cites electricity shortages due to Russian attacks, poor harvests, and acute labor shortages in the economy caused by war-related needs.

At the same time, according to the EBRD, some sectors demonstrated steady growth, in particular due to the resumption of exports through the Black Sea corridor.

Ukrainian business also showed high adaptability, which led to the restoration of export growth after two years of sharp decline.

The resumption of inflation in late 2024 was a result of rising electricity costs and high rates of real wage growth.

Ukraine untied its currency in October 2023, since which time the value of the hryvnia has fallen by about 10% against the US dollar.

Inflation in Ukraine reached 14.6% in March 2025, but is expected to fall to single digits by the end of the year. To combat inflation, the National Bank has raised the discount rate to 15.5%.

Financial support from the EU through the Ukraine Facility mechanism, as well as revenues from frozen Russian assets transferred by the G7 countries, will allow Ukraine to fully cover its budget and external deficits in 2025.