Ukraine outlines dual economic forecasts based on war outlook: key indicators
Photo: press service of the Cabinet of Ministers

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has published its official macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028, which will serve as a basis for strategic planning and the development of the state budget.

The forecast includes projections for GDP growth, inflation (consumer price index), unemployment, average wages, and trade balance. It outlines two scenarios depending on the country’s security situation.

Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko told lawmakers that the first (baseline) scenario assumes a gradual normalization, while the second takes into account continued hostilities in 2026.

According to the baseline scenario, real GDP is expected to grow by:

  • 4.5% in 2026
  • 5.0% in 2027
  • 5.7% in 2028

Under the alternative scenario, GDP growth would be more modest:

  • 2.4% in 2026
  • 4.7% in 2027
  • 4.5% in 2028

In the baseline scenario, annual inflation (CPI) is forecast to slow from 8.6% in 2026 to 5.3% in 2028. Under the war-prolonged scenario, inflation will remain higher: 9.9% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2028.

Regardless of the scenario, average monthly nominal wages are expected to rise from UAH 30,000 in 2026 to over UAH 39,000 in 2028.

Both scenarios foresee a significant trade deficit.

Baseline scenario: from $34.7 billion in 2026 to $33 billion in 2028.

Worse scenario: from $44.5 billion in 2026 to $33.9 billion in 2028.

  • The National Bank of Ukraine’s forecast is more conservative, predicting GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
  • The IMF, meanwhile, warns that risks tied to the negative (war-prolonged) scenario remain exceptionally high.
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