EBRD predicts Ukraine's GDP to grow by 2.5%. The Ministry of Economy expects only 2%
The EBRD office in London (Photo: Depositphotos)

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%, according to the September report EBRD Regional Economic Outlook.

Despite the downgraded forecast, this estimate remains quite optimistic compared to Ukraine's internal forecasts.

The National Bank said in August that it expects economic growth of 2.1% for the year, but it could be even lower, Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev said .

"This year, we expect GDP growth of 2% – in particular, thanks to industry, manufacturing, energy and agriculture," wrote he on Facebook on September 24.

In its report, the EBRD points out that Ukraine's economic growth is being held back by Russian aggression, labor shortages, damaged energy infrastructure, and weak agricultural exports. However, if the war ends and reconstruction begins, the economy could grow by 5% in 2026.

This is also significantly higher than the NBU's forecasts. He believes that real GDP growth is likely to be limited to 2-3% per year if the tense situation persists for a long time.

However, if the situation normalizes faster, economic growth will be more significant. This will be facilitated by reduced security risks, investment in reconstruction, further European integration, and the gradual return of migrants.

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