IMF raises global forecast due to AI boom

The International Monetary Fund has raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from its October forecast, as businesses adjust to U.S. tariffs and a surge in investment in artificial intelligence boost productivity expectations. About this reports Reuters.

"We believe that global growth remains quite resilient," said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourenschas. He added that the current projections exceed expectations made before the election  Donald Trump for a second presidential term in October 2024.

He said the global economy is successfully "resetting" the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025. Businesses have adapted to higher U.S. tariffs by reorienting supply chains. Trade deals have lowered some tariffs, and China has redirected exports to markets outside the United States.

The US economy will grow by 2.4% in 2026, 0.3 percentage points faster than previously expected, driven in part by massive investments in AI infrastructure: data centers, powerful chips, and power grids.

The AI boom is not just driving activity in the US. Spain saw its 2026 forecast rise by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%. The UK maintained its estimate at 1.3%, also driven by technology investments.

Gurenshas warned that the frenetic pace of the AI boom poses risks of rising inflation. At the same time, if expectations for productivity and profit growth fail to materialize, it could cause a correction in high market valuations and limit demand.

The IMF has identified artificial intelligence among the risks with negative potential. Other threats include disruptions to supply chains due to geopolitical tensions and renewed escalation of trade conflicts.

China will grow 4.5% in 2026, down from 5.0% in 2025 but 0.3 percentage points higher than the October estimate. The increase reflects a 10 percentage point reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods during the year and a shift in exports to Southeast Asia and Europe.

The eurozone will grow by 1.3% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October forecast, driven by higher government spending in Germany and better performance in Spain and Ireland.

According to IMF forecasts, global inflation will continue to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

• On January 9, the UN declared that the global economy will slow down the growth rate to 2.7% in 2026 compared to 2.8% last year.
• January 13 World Bank raised the forecast global economic growth for 2026 to 2.6% versus the June forecast of 2.3%.