S&P upgrades Ukraine's credit rating to 'CCC+' after debt restructuring
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S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from ‘SD’ (selective default) to ‘CCC+’. The outlook is stable.

The upgrade follows the completion in December 2025 of the exchange of Ukraine’s GDP warrants for new securities maturing in 2032. S&P also assigned the new instruments a ‘CCC+’ rating.

On S&P’s scale, a ‘CCC’ rating indicates that the issuer is currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet its financial commitments. The ‘+’ signifies the highest tier within this category, reflecting comparatively lower risk within the ‘CCC’ range..

Ukraine had been rated ‘SD’ since August 2024, after launching negotiations to restructure its external debt and declaring a moratorium on interest payments.

Ukraine completed the main restructuring of $20.5 billion of external commercial debt — about 78% of the total — in September 2024, but reached an agreement with GDP warrant holders only at the end of 2025.

S&P noted that although a small portion of Ukraine’s commercial debt remains in default (less than 2.5% of the total), this is not expected to materially affect the country’s capacity to service its other obligations.

Following the 2024–2025 restructuring, Ukraine’s external commercial debt service needs have been reduced to around $1 billion annually over the next three years. The first principal repayment on external bonds is now expected in 2029.

The stable outlook reflects a balance between manageable debt servicing needs and anticipated sustained support from the European Union, offset by elevated security risks stemming from the war.

S&P expects high-intensity hostilities to continue through 2026.

The rating could be downgraded if the security situation deteriorates further or if additional commercial debt restructuring becomes necessary. An upgrade would require an improvement in the security environment and Ukraine’s medium-term macroeconomic outlook.

  • In addition to the $2.6 billion GDP warrants, Ukraine still needs to finalize the restructuring of $825 million in sovereign-guaranteed Eurobonds issued by Ukrenergo — for which a preliminary agreement was reached in April but completion was postponed until early 2026 — as well as a $700 million external commercial loan from Cargill.