Ukraine’s economic growth accelerates to 3% in Q4 2025

Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October–December), according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service.

This was the strongest quarterly result since mid-2024. Quarterly GDP dynamics were as follows:

• Q2 2024: +4.0%
• Q3 2024: +2.2%
• Q4 2024: −0.1%
• Q1 2025: +0.9%
• Q2 2025: +0.7%
• Q3 2025: +2.1%

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) attributed the late-2025 economic rebound primarily to a more active agricultural harvest, with part of the crop shifted into the fourth quarter, as well as increased government budget spending.

At the same time, the NBU slightly downgraded its full-year 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, citing logistics disruptions and a larger-than-expected electricity shortage in recent months.

The central bank expects further economic recovery to be supported by higher agricultural output and investment in infrastructure reconstruction and the defense sector. However, persistent problems in the energy sector are likely to continue constraining business activity for an extended period.

As a result, the NBU forecasts moderate real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026. A gradual improvement in the energy sector, continued infrastructure rebuilding, and increased private investment could accelerate economic growth to around 3–4% in 2027–2028.