The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts a drop in economic growth to zero by the end of 2025

Russia's economic growth rate may slow to almost zero by the end of 2025. About it says in the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, writes The Moscow Times.

According to the regulator, in the first quarter of 2025, Russian GDP grew by only 1.4%, which is almost three times less than in the same period last year (4.1%).

In the second quarter, growth accelerated slightly to 1.8%, but in the third quarter, the slowdown began again, with +1.6% expected. In the fourth quarter, the forecast is even weaker: only 0-1% growth.

Overall, Russia's economy will grow by a maximum of 1-2% this year, and even less in 2026: the forecast is only 0.5-1.5%. This indicates a transition to a phase of economic stagnation.

At the same time, the global economy, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, will outpace the Russian economy by almost three times. Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The Chinese economy will also grow much faster – by about 5% annually.

Earlier, in 2023-2024, the Russian economy showed nominal growth due to billions of dollars in spending on defense, war, and payments to the military.

At that time, GDP grew by more than 8%, which was a record for the last 20 years. But now, experts say, the war, Western sanctions, lack of workers, and high interest rates have begun to put serious pressure on the economy.

According to Bloomberg Economics, many sectors are already showing signs of crisis: coal companies are recording losses, oil and gas and metallurgical revenues have plummeted, and car plants are cutting back on working weeks due to lack of demand.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation calls these processes a reduction in economic overheating and a return to a balanced trajectory.

• on July 25, the Central Bank of Russia sharply reduced the interest rate due to the risk of recession.
• The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine expects that the Russian economy will start to collapse by the end of 2025 under pressure from sanctions and military spending.