NBU holds key rate at 15.5% amid inflation risks and uncertainty in "reparations loan"

The National Bank of Ukraine has kept its key policy rate unchanged at 15.5% for the sixth consecutive time. The NBU said the decision aims to preserve the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market amid persistent inflationary risks, according to its official statement.

In November, inflation in Ukraine eased to 9.3% year-on-year, slightly below the NBU’s forecast. The slowdown was driven by increased food supply following the arrival of new harvests.

At the same time, the NBU notes that inflation expectations among households and businesses remain elevated, and public attention to price growth continues to rise.

The bank expects inflation to continue declining gradually in the coming months, though at a more moderate pace as the impact of the favourable comparison base wears off. The NBU’s long-term objective remains unchanged — bringing inflation down to its 5% target.

If pro-inflationary risks increase, particularly due to uncertainty over external financing, the NBU is prepared to pause monetary easing or even take additional restrictive measures. Conversely, if these risks subside, the NBU will be able to reduce the key policy rate in line with the baseline scenario of its October macroeconomic forecast.

• The key policy rate is the main indicator that determines the cost of money in the economy, influencing interest rates on loans and deposits.
• After the start of the full-scale invasion, it was sharply increased from 10% to 25%, and remained at this level until July 2023. Then, due to a significant slowdown in inflation The NBU began to gradually reduce the key policy rateuntil it dropped to 15% in December 2023.
• In March 2024, the NBU resumed its reduction, but in December started to increase again.
• Since March 2025, it has been at 15.5%.